By NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has recently captured the attention of investors and analysts following a series of positive developments.
On Friday, J.P. Morgan upgraded NIO’s stock rating from Neutral to Overweight, raising its price target to $8, up from $5.30.
This upgrade reflects improved financial visibility, promising new model initiatives, and an optimistic outlook on the company’s operational and financial turnaround.
J.P. Morgan analyst Nick Lai pointed to NIO’s stronger cash position and reduced concerns over potential equity dilution as key factors behind the upgrade.
Additionally, the firm’s revised volume estimates for the latter half of 2024 and 2025 project an 11% to 13% increase, underscoring confidence in NIO’s growth trajectory despite ongoing challenges in the electric vehicle (EV) market.
In a related development, Citi analyst Jeff Chung also expressed a positive outlook on NIO, albeit with a slightly lower price target of $7.
Chung’s optimism stems from the stock’s current undervaluation compared to competitors like Xpeng, which trades at a higher multiple of expected 2025 sales.
Citi’s analysis suggests that NIO’s valuation gap will narrow as the company ramps up production of more affordable models and invests in autonomous driving technologies.
Chung also revised his earnings per share (EPS) estimates for NIO for 2024-2026, reinforcing his confidence in the company’s potential despite challenges in achieving profitability before 2027.
NIO’s Q2 performance: Record deliveries
NIO’s impressive Q2 2024 performance, reported on September 5, has also contributed to its recent stock surge.
The company delivered a record 57,373 vehicles during the quarter, marking a significant increase of 143.9% year-over-year and 90.9% quarter-over-quarter.
This robust delivery performance drove a 98.9% year-over-year revenue growth to $2.4 billion, although it fell short of Wall Street estimates by $40 million.
The company’s vehicle margin improved to 12.2%, up from 6.2% a year ago, while its gross margin reached 9.7%, a substantial increase from 1.0% in Q2 2023.
These gains were largely driven by increased delivery volumes and cost optimizations, helping to offset higher operating expenses.
Despite the positive momentum, NIO reported a net loss of $694.4 million for the quarter, though this represents a 16.7% improvement from the previous year.
The losses were primarily due to high operating expenses, including R&D and marketing costs, which remain critical for NIO’s long-term strategy.
The company’s cash position remains strong, bolstered by $5.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, providing a buffer as NIO continues to invest in growth and innovation.
NIO’s guidance for Q3 2024, forecasting vehicle deliveries of 61,000 to 63,000 units, suggests continued strong performance.
However, maintaining this momentum will be crucial for achieving profitability in the coming years.
China’s macroeconomic challenges
NIO faces challenges from China’s macroeconomic environment and increasing competition from other Chinese EV makers.
Despite these headwinds, NIO’s focus on the premium EV segment and technological innovations position it well for long-term success.
The expansion of its charging and swapping network could provide additional support for its growth.
As we examine NIO’s recent performance and outlook, the next step is to delve into the technical analysis of its stock price to determine if the charts align with the fundamental optimism surrounding the company.
NIO stock technical analysis: Bullish momentum
NIO’s stock has fallen more than 90% from its high above $60 made in early 2021 and in the long-term charts, it still remains weak. However, following yesterday’s which propelled it above its 100-day moving average, the short-term momentum for the stock has turned bullish.
Source: TradingView
Now, the release test for the stock will be to give a closing above its recent swing high above $6 in May. If the stock manages to cross that it will enter a bullish trend in the medium-term charts.
Hence, investors bullish on the stock can either initiate a small long position here or wait for the stock to give a closing above $6.05. In either case, one must keep a stop loss at $3.93. If the bullish momentum continues, the stock could hit J.P. Morgan’s target of $8 in the coming months.
Traders who are bearish on the stock must refrain from shorting it at current levels due to the short-term bullish momentum. A short position must only be considered if the stock again falls below its 100-day moving average.
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